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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

But the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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