Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.