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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.