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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd