Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Drop of the Goal Scoring
A key narrative of the Premier League this campaign concerns the decline of goals scored in open-play scenarios and how teams are finding goals increasingly from dead-ball situations as an alternative.
Looking at how goals have been scored to the first 11 games last season, we see 39 fewer scored in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer in total.
Examining the bigger picture, shot attempts sides are producing have seen a remarkable drop of 370 in open-play than this time last time out.
And despite the notable jump in dead-ball scores, there have actually been only two additional attempts generated from them outside of penalties, indicating the efficiency sides have been at discovering methods to convert from dead-ball chances.
Scoring Rates Tell a Story
The 301 goals notched in 110 matches to date works out at 2.74 scores per fixture, if maintained for all 38 games would be the lowest for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).
However, only 196 goals scored in open play translates to 1.78 per game and is heading to be the lowest for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
That campaign also marks the only Premier League campaign to experience goals scored more often from set-plays excluding penalties than the current rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 average).
What Clubs Account for This Change?
In terms of scoring from open play, Wolves have seen the most significant decline, netting only four in their first 11 fixtures, a reduction of 10 than this point last season.
Apart from Wolverhampton, the Premier League's drop in open play goals is largely a London thing, with half of the city's seven teams recording at least five goals fewer from open play than the previous year.
In fairness, that's largely down to them scoring numerous scores at the start of the previous campaign as opposed to them really struggling to score in open-play the current term.
Meanwhile Man City have recorded the biggest increase, with nearly all of their 23 goals so far arriving in open play.
Set-Play Proficiency
We've compared clubs that came up with those that were relegated they took the place of. Sunderland Sunderland have scored three extra scores in open play than the Saints did in their opening 11 matches leading to relegation last season.
In terms of goals scored from set-pieces (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have recorded the biggest increase, with both sides replacing the five fewer scores that they've netted in open-play with identical figures from set-pieces.
United have netted twice as many scores from set-pieces as they did in the first 11 matches the previous campaign before Ruben Amorim took charge, while Sunderland additionally have been better at netting than the fellow red-and-whites they superseded.
Manchester City don't seem to have got the memo about netting additional goals from set-pieces, because they've netted a reduction of three than last season, similar to Forest, though this could be because of the tactical shift they're working to install.
General Tendencies
Six clubs – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – are the current campaign's leading trend-followers by recording fewer scores from open-play and more from set-plays, while Manchester City stand as the unique club to go against the grain to date by achieving the exact opposite.
It remains to be seen to observe if sides continue to depend greatly on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they rediscover their overall inventiveness and begin netting increased totals in open play as well.
